This year has demonstrated the power that can be hidden from the public with chance or luck. Yet the misunderstanding of probability can be seen across our society and has existed for quite some time. This is how gambling powers itself with the entertainment part of the business comparable to marketing. Humans are not the best at calculating risk between different options, although systems have been designed to do this in a better way. For some predictions, the average person can lean on life experience, but this can also be used to change their perception of reality and manipulate them.
Perception Beats Understanding:
If you want to convince someone of odds, you do not need to tell the truth but just have them believe. The field of human manipulation has become much more advanced. Studies done since World War 2 have helped formalised knowledge. Yet also groundbreaking work has been done. With artificial intelligence, more parts of human perception can be noticed and then be adapted to. Already a large section of the financial markets is being run out of sight of humans. Yet deals are constantly made that see peoples knowledge remain the same but the perception of the facts change. This art of spin and the art of the deal is a powerful part of our societies function.
This can be used for good making some in a worse situation feel better. Yet often the negative versions of changing perception are what is highlighted. A bad contract or a bad deal that seemed good at the start before the details where discovered by the individual. If the person never found out about the deal being bad, then they would leave the objectively bad deal thinking that it was good. They could give advise or enter another deal that is bad in the same way. Truth for some people only is believed or even perceived when they feel the consequences of the acts. If the consequence do not happen then a large number of people can share bad advice and change what is believed is true. If this is a foundational belief, then entire sections of logic can be built on perceptions that are false. The implications of this can be left to the imagination.
Hiding Odds Does Better Then Explaining Them:
Airlines are one of the safest industries in the world but they would prefer that their failures where kept from the public eye. This is due to flawed perceptions of danger and also the fact that it has direct repercussions for removed sales in the future. This can impact even if it was another firm or due to a issue that is not something that could be controlled for. It is impossible however for the sector to hide the odds for how bad things can happen so they true to highlight how low the odds are with mixed success. Yet other sectors such as the ones that handle the retirement savings of Americans love the fact that they can hide success and the chances that something bad could go wrong. For issues such as money that are interacted with more often then flying the understanding is remarkably and unnaturally low.
Other sectors such as fast food and the nightlife service sectors enjoy the fact that people do not think of the costs verse how much the customer is paying. For other goods, the assumed costs are what powers the business. The fake rarity of diamonds comes to mind as it has created money off a resource that was much easier to mine than other resources. For more information on this topic I recommend the excellent video below:
Impacts Of Misunderstanding Of Odds
A unknown amount of choices are made with real consequences due to a misunderstanding of odds. Flying from one side of the US to the other before Covid would be much safer then driving but it seems likely that at least some people have done it due to fears of crashing. The finical devastation that Covid has highlighted also shows that a large number of people have engaged in risky moves that are now showing consequences in a worse environment. Private individuals and firms appear to have underestimated odds with the worse case display of luck being a infectious disease escaping from China (the odds of this happening where only increasing).
The tax of the poor and gambling also highlights a negative of odds. While being viewed as a entertainment and done with moderation gambling is a entertainment it has the power to ruin lives if abused. The fact that people have unrealistic views of luck have ruined lives and is real tragedy for numerous families.